According to Multimedia Research Group (MRG), in 2008 the actual IPTV subscribers ended up at about 1 million over its last forecast in late 2008, or 21.3 million, resulting in projected subscriber growth of 26.9 million in 2009 to over 81 million in 2013. Combined (last-mile) CapEx revenue plus service revenue will grow from US$9.7 billion in 2009 to US$25.6 billion in 2013.

As the IPTV market matures, many innovations are emerging, including Service Providers’ turning to Over-the-Top Video applications to supplement their video-on-demand offerings. Technical upgrades also contribute to growth, including DVRs, High-definition programming, MPEG-4/H.264, and first class system integration.

685 companies worldwide were identified as deploying IPTV services. Although the number of Service Providers have increased since the last report, some have also been removed because they either stopped providing IPTV services, were duplicates or they’ve merged with another company.

The biggest growth region came from the ROW category, which went up from 64 companies to 84.Countries like Colombia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Montenegro and the Russian federation have seen new growth in their operations, and, the ROW region will be among the fastest-growing market from 2009 to 2013 with a 29% CAGR.

Figure 1 shows the global IPTV subscriber forecast for 2009-2013.MRG is forecasting that the number of global IPTV subscribers will grow from 26.7 million in 2009 to 81 million in 2013, a compound annual growth rate of 32%. The five-year forecast has gone down from the Fall 2008 Global Forecast where MRG predicted 89.1 million subscribers by 2012. 

Figure 1: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast

One indicator that new subscriptions will remain strong is the Q1/2009 IPTV subscriber growth of 583,000 combined for U.S. Verizon and AT&T compared with 114k new subs added by the two largest U.S. Cable Operators, Comcast and Time Warner for the same period. Also a signal of new growth is the number of new IPTV Operators in Eastern Europe and the Rest-of-World (ROW) region.

Previously both Europe and Asia have battled for the region with the largest number of IPTV subscribers in 2013. However in this report, we’ve again forecasted that Europe will remain the largest region, with almost 35 million subscribers in 2013, or about 43% of the total worldwide IPTV subscriber total. Asia is next with almost 27 million subscribers in 2013, or 34% of the worldwide total.

Forecasts for Asia had to be lowered because of slower growth rates in Korea and Japan, although the total growth rate in our forecast is still a healthy 34%. China will take the lead in Asia, with 45% of that region’s total and 15% of the worldwide IPTV subscriber total. North America will have the top two largest IPTV Service Providers globally by 2013, however 21% of the overall global IPTV market. The Rest of the World region will see aggressive growth from 2009 to 2013 (29.3% growth rate), but it is starting from a very small base, and will represent only 3% of the IPTV subscriber base in 2013. 

In terms of service revenue, the Global IPTV market is $6.7 billion in 2009 and growing to $19.9 billion in 2013, a compound annual growth rate of 31%. By 2013, Europe and North America will generate a larger share of global revenue, due to very low ARPUs in China and India, the fastest growing (and ultimately, the biggest markets) in Asia.

Figure 2 shows the global IPTV revenue forecast for 2009-2013.

Multimedia Research Group, Inc. publishes market analyses of new technologies for the digital media industries, and provides market intelligence and strategy consulting for its client companies. MRG was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.