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According
to Multimedia Research Group (MRG), in 2008 the
actual IPTV subscribers ended up at about 1 million over
its last forecast in late 2008, or 21.3 million,
resulting in projected subscriber growth of 26.9 million
in 2009 to over 81 million in 2013. Combined (last-mile)
CapEx revenue plus service revenue will grow from US$9.7
billion in 2009 to US$25.6 billion in 2013.
As the
IPTV market matures, many innovations are emerging,
including Service Providers’ turning to Over-the-Top
Video applications to supplement their video-on-demand
offerings. Technical upgrades also contribute to growth,
including DVRs, High-definition programming,
MPEG-4/H.264, and first class system integration.
685
companies worldwide were identified as deploying IPTV
services. Although the number of Service Providers have
increased since the last report, some have also been
removed because they either stopped providing IPTV
services, were duplicates or they’ve merged with
another company.
The
biggest growth region came from the ROW category, which
went up from 64 companies to 84.Countries like
Colombia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Montenegro and
the Russian federation have seen new growth in their
operations, and, the ROW region will be among the
fastest-growing market from 2009 to 2013 with a 29% CAGR.
Figure
1 shows the global IPTV subscriber forecast for
2009-2013.MRG is forecasting that the number of global IPTV
subscribers will grow from 26.7 million in 2009 to 81
million in 2013, a
compound annual growth rate of 32%. The five-year
forecast has gone down from the Fall 2008 Global
Forecast where MRG predicted 89.1 million subscribers by
2012.
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Figure
1: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
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One
indicator that new subscriptions will remain strong is
the Q1/2009 IPTV subscriber growth of 583,000 combined
for U.S. Verizon and AT&T compared with 114k new
subs added by the two largest U.S. Cable Operators,
Comcast and Time Warner for the same period. Also a
signal of new growth is the number of new IPTV Operators
in Eastern Europe and the Rest-of-World (ROW) region.
Previously
both Europe and Asia have battled for the region with
the largest number of IPTV subscribers in 2013. However
in this report, we’ve again forecasted that Europe
will remain the largest region, with almost 35 million
subscribers in 2013, or about 43% of the total worldwide
IPTV subscriber total. Asia is next with almost 27
million subscribers in 2013, or 34% of the worldwide
total.
Forecasts
for Asia had to be lowered because of slower growth
rates in Korea and Japan, although the total growth rate
in our forecast is still a healthy 34%. China will take
the lead in Asia, with 45% of that region’s total and
15% of the worldwide IPTV subscriber total. North
America will have the top two largest IPTV Service
Providers globally by 2013, however 21% of the overall
global IPTV market. The Rest of the World region will
see aggressive growth from 2009 to 2013 (29.3% growth
rate), but it is starting from a very small base, and
will represent only 3% of the IPTV subscriber base in
2013.
In
terms of service revenue, the Global IPTV market is $6.7
billion in 2009 and growing to $19.9 billion in 2013, a
compound annual growth rate of 31%. By 2013, Europe and
North America will generate a larger share of global
revenue, due to very low ARPUs in China and India, the
fastest growing (and ultimately, the biggest markets) in
Asia.
Figure
2 shows the global IPTV revenue forecast for 2009-2013.
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Figure 2 : Global IPTV
Revenue Forecast |
MRG’s
IPTV
Global Forecast – 2009 to 2013 incorporates
the most recent information on current IPTV deployments
around the world, as well a forecast for IPTV
subscribers, service revenue, and system revenue from
2009 to 2013. MRG breaks down the IPTV ecosystem into
six markets: Access Systems, Video Headends,
Video-on-Demand, Set-top Boxes, Middleware and Content
Protection/Digital Rights Management (CP/DRM). In
addition, we split up the market into 4 regions around
the world: Europe, Asia, North America and Rest of
World, as well as the Worldwide (global) market. contact
Rob Smith at or rsmith@mrgco.com,
or visit www.mrgco.com |
Multimedia
Research Group, Inc. publishes market analyses of new
technologies for the digital media industries, and provides
market intelligence and strategy consulting for its
client companies. MRG was founded in 1990 and is headquartered
in Sunnyvale, California. |
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